Episode 238 - 2024 Buck Forecast - MORE GIANTS SHOT THIS YEAR

Published: 2024-09-08
Episode page
Duration: 60 min

In this episode

antler-growth

• Don said that unlike last year, when older bucks he tracked stayed the same or lost inches, every buck he watched from the previous season added inches this year. 16:38
• Don said managers need to recognize that a poor antler-growing season next year could cause mature bucks to actually lose inches compared to this year. 46:37

antler-scores

• Terry said this year’s deer herd antler scores are probably near their genetic ceiling for the conditions, since last year’s herd was likely on the low end. 21:30
• Don estimated the average antler score of Midwest bucks five and a half and older jumped from about 150 inches last year to roughly 170 inches this year. 22:25

bow-hunting

• Don said he is hoping Mathews delivers his new bow this week so he can start shooting it and get it tuned in. 58:40

bow-sight

• Terry said he is having trouble finding a consistent peep-sight anchor point because of the intermediate bifocals in his new hunting glasses. 57:36

buck-forecast

• Don predicted that some absolute giant bucks well over 200 inches will be killed this year. 17:11
• Terry predicted that within two more years there will be a shortage of really good five and six year old bucks due to premature harvest of future giants. 30:06
• Terry specifically predicted a shortage of five and six year old bucks in 2026 and 2027. 30:15
• Terry predicted elite top-end bucks will be killed alongside many really good three year olds that hunters will mistakenly claim are five or six years old. 31:49

buck-forecast-2024

• Don’s 2024 buck forecast predicted an unusual number of bucks over 200 inches, including several over 220 inches, would be killed this year. 29:26

buck-genetics

• Jason Steele asked whether certain small geographic pockets, even within one county, consistently produce bigger bucks regardless of scale. 51:38

buck-management

• Don said many hunters who want giant bucks still can’t resist shooting a buck only one or two years away from its full potential. 30:49

cell-cameras

• Don noted he gets far fewer trail-camera photos of certain bucks on cell cameras than on non-cell cameras and wonders whether bucks can somehow detect cell cameras. 1:39
• Listeners privately told Don that switching a location from a cell camera to a non-cell camera, or vice versa, suddenly changed whether they captured photos of the bucks using that spot. 2:31
• Terry said he will keep running cell cameras in Kentucky where he uses feed and mineral, despite the concerns raised about cell cameras. 5:00
• Don said he will never place a cell camera in bedding cover where he expects a mature buck to bed, to avoid running the buck off. 5:39
• Don plans to keep using cell cameras specifically to monitor for trespassers and dogs so he can address problems instantly. 6:01
• Matt Mickelson asked whether reduced cell-camera photos of mature bucks might be caused by the camera connecting to the cellular network. 32:54

change

• Terry joked that his attitude toward change is being fine with it as long as he personally doesn’t have to change. 41:01 (light moment)
• Don joked back that he’s fine with change too, as long as somebody else is the one doing it. 41:05 (light moment)

consulting

• Don said his most frustrating task as a consultant is getting clients to envision a property’s potential the way he already can. 40:17
• Brandon Pearson asked Don to describe the positive changes he has witnessed over time as a multi-year consulting plan unfolds on client properties. 36:53

cwd

• Don said he believes CWD hysteria is driving states to avoid managing for older age-class bucks out of fear those deer are more likely to carry the disease. 20:11
• Terry compared claims that older bucks test positive for CWD more often to saying a 90-year-old is more likely than a 30-year-old to test positive for Alzheimer’s, calling it ridiculous. 23:37

deer-behavior

• Don cited wildlife biologist Bronson Strickland’s maxim that hunters should never say never and never say always about deer behavior. 3:27

deer-decoys

• Dell Hoover asked whether Don has ever tried hunting over a deer decoy to draw a buck closer or if it’s simply not part of his approach. 47:23

doe-harvest

• Don plans to target harvesting ten to fifteen does on his farm this year to control the population. 24:25

fawn-recruitment

• Don said he has seen more triplet fawns this year than ever before, producing a fantastic fawn crop he attributes to the mild weather. 25:20

food-plots

• Ben Meyer asked whether, as August turns to September, his food-plot focus should switch to strictly harvest salad instead of the Deadly Dozen blend. 41:59

gun-season

• Don said he will hunt gun season for the first time in decades this year, targeting only does rather than a trophy buck. 24:52

habitat-improvement

• Don recalled always thinking his farm would be great ‘in five years’ until one day he realized it had already become good from incremental changes. 39:24

herd-management

• Don said poor age structure in the deer herd, not one good antler year, is the real herd-management issue limiting truly giant bucks. 18:07
• Don said Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio could all outproduce any other state for trophy deer if they simply managed for older age-class bucks. 20:32

herd-rebuilding

• Terry said Wes, running Higgins two point o, has had to rebuild the herd’s age structure almost from scratch in an area where deer had been historically wiped out. 38:29

hunting-pressure

• Terry argued hunters must eliminate every variable and stop taking chances around mature bucks because such deer will not tolerate pressure or intrusion. 4:10
• Terry said the biggest and most immediate change from a consulting plan is that removing human intrusion causes deer numbers to increase right away. 39:43

kentucky-opener

• Terry said that because of this year’s late Kentucky opener, he will not be able to hunt opening weekend for the first time. 56:22

mentorship

• Don said Al Foster saved him at least a decade on the learning curve when they met while Don was 18 or 19 years old. 10:38
• Don said that after meeting Al, he literally tripled his buck sightings from a stand in a single season. 11:10

schedule-change

• Don announced that next week’s podcast might not upload until Monday, September 16, due to Terry’s travel schedule. 59:57

scouting

• Don said even with a year of experience on a farm he can know exactly where to be to kill a particular buck at a particular time with a particular wind. 8:37

seminar-planning

• Terry proposed getting Al Foster to give a twenty-minute seminar on his wind-direction ‘slicing the pie’ diagram at the Shipshewana Show’s Midwest Sportsman’s Classic. 10:10

stand-hunting

• Jordan Mouse asked how often Don would hunt a mature buck from the same stand given a good wind and good access. 54:05

stand-placement

• Don explained he already knows where to hunt on his property and only needs cameras to confirm the target buck is using the area during the right time frame. 7:35

stewardship

• Don said part of an ethical hunter’s responsibility is to manage the deer resource and leave it better than they found it. 27:07

tooth-aging

• Terry joked that skeptics of buck ages should send teeth to Dear age.com, which he clarified is not a sponsor, to verify a buck’s true age. 32:07 (light moment)

trade-show

• Derek told Terry that vendor booth space at the Midwest Sportsman’s Classic is selling out fast. 11:51
• Terry said the show plans to build on last year’s legends roundtable with the Wensel brothers, Bobby Worthington, Don, Al, and Joe by adding more breakout sessions. 12:07
• Terry said he will be working at a trade show in Downtown Chicago and won’t return home until September 15. 56:04

trail-cameras

• Don said years of trail-camera history watching a buck grow up are critical to eventually killing that buck once it becomes a mature target. 7:16

tv-show

• Terry announced that footage of a friend’s hunt for an absolute giant buck will be brought to viewers through the upcoming new Chasing Giants TV show. 13:18

winter-severity

• Terry warned that a catastrophic winter combined with this fall’s food shortage could make next year one of the worst antler-growing seasons. 45:57

Deer activity

• unnamed buck (trail-camera) 3:06
• unnamed buck (hunt) 13:12
• unnamed buck (sighting) 15:33
• unnamed buck (trail-camera) 15:45
• unnamed buck (harvest) 48:22

Listener questions

Question: Matt Mickelson asked whether reduced cell-camera photos of mature bucks might be caused by the camera connecting to the cellular network. 32:54 — asked by Matt Mickelson

• Answer: Don suggested cell cameras sending photos might emit an inaudible noise, like a silent dog whistle, that spooks mature bucks, though he wasn’t certain. 35:13

Question: Brandon Pearson asked Don to describe the positive changes he has witnessed over time as a multi-year consulting plan unfolds on client properties. 36:53 — asked by Brandon Pearson

• Answer: Don said on some properties simply following his plan brings a day-and-night difference the very first year, while on others he only needs to tweak one or two things. 37:25

Question: Ben Meyer asked whether, as August turns to September, his food-plot focus should switch to strictly harvest salad instead of the Deadly Dozen blend. 41:59 — asked by Ben Meyer

• Answer: Don advised that cereal grains and harvest salad can be planted later than brassicas since they need less time to mature, so timing matters more than switching species. 42:47

Question: Dell Hoover asked whether Don has ever tried hunting over a deer decoy to draw a buck closer or if it’s simply not part of his approach. 47:23 — asked by Dell Hoover

• Answer: Don said he has only used a decoy once, killing a young buck with a recurve, but has otherwise seen decoys spook far more Illinois bucks than they ever attracted. 48:37

Question: Jason Steele asked whether certain small geographic pockets, even within one county, consistently produce bigger bucks regardless of scale. 51:38 — asked by Jason Steele

• Answer: Don attributed the ‘hot pocket’ phenomenon mainly to genetics, since nutrition barely varies across the Midwest’s corn and soybean landscape from mile to mile. 52:51

Question: Jordan Mouse asked how often Don would hunt a mature buck from the same stand given a good wind and good access. 54:05 — asked by Jordan Mouse

• Answer: Don said he wouldn’t hesitate to hunt a stand two or three times a week, or more, as long as the wind and access are truly reliable. 54:23

Don and Terry debated whether cell cameras spook mature bucks, with Don noting fewer photos of certain bucks on cell versus non-cell cameras and citing listener reports of photo activity changing when a location switched camera types. Terry argued hunters must eliminate every variable around mature bucks, while Don said he’d avoid cell cameras in expected bedding cover but keep them for trespasser and dog monitoring. They discussed plans for the Midwest Sportsman’s Classic, including a possible Al Foster wind-direction seminar, and Don credited Foster with tripling his stand sightings after they met. Don reported this year’s bucks gained inches rather than holding steady, predicted several giants over 200 inches would be killed, and blamed poor age structure and states avoiding older bucks for limiting truly giant deer. He also planned to harvest ten to fifteen does and hunt gun season for the first time in decades. Listener questions covered food-plot timing, decoys, and stand-site fidelity.

Unofficial fan project. AI-synthesized from public episodes; may contain errors.